Editor’s Note
- When do crypto cycles and altcoin seasons show their strength?
- Bitcoin Halving: Supply Shock
- Every season in the crypto market requires a strategy
When do crypto cycles and altcoin seasons show their strength?
Those of you who trade in crypto know that there is one sacred question that can determine whether your portfolio will rise or fall.
When is it the turn of coins other than Bitcoin to show their true strength? It is a moment everyone has been waiting for, but frankly, many have misjudged the timing.
It turns out that the answer lies in a pattern: a four-year cycle that, believe it or not, repeats itself time and again.
Understanding this cycle is not just about theory. It is about gaining a strategic advantage. And to decipher this cycle, we must start at the center, none other than the king, Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Halving: Supply Shock
Every four years, an event takes place called the Bitcoin Halving. Think of it as a planned supply shock. Suddenly, the number of newly created Bitcoins is halved.
Automatically, Bitcoin becomes scarcer. And from the very beginning, this was the spark that unleashed the Bull Run. Okay, don’t just take my word for it; just look at the data. The pattern is crystal clear, isn’t it?
Every time a halving occurs—in 2012, 2016, and 2020—the price immediately rises dramatically. And guess what, we have just passed the 2024 halving.
History does not always repeat itself exactly, but often follows a similar pattern. Now, when Bitcoin starts to rise, the money doesn’t stop there.
This is where the fun part begins. There is a trail of money flows that we can follow, like crumbs leading us to a hidden treasure. This map is the key. The money flows according to a predictable pattern.
First of all, all the big capital goes to the safest cryptocurrency: Bitcoin. As soon as Bitcoin’s profits are secured, investors look for something riskier, but with greater potential profit.
Money flows into Ethereum, then into other major altcoins, and then, boom! A craze for small-cap coins and meme coins. We call that an altcoin season.
How do we track this flow of money? Simple: we use one key indicator: Bitcoin Dominance, or BTCD. This indicates what percentage of the total money in the crypto market is invested in Bitcoin.
If the percentage drops, it means that a lot of money is flowing into altcoins. Think of it as our compass. This is where many novice investors fall into a trap.
There is a dangerous myth that Bitcoin must fall first before altcoins can rise. That is a big mistake. A real altcoin season takes place when the Bitcoin price moves sideways, in other words, rises slowly.
It seems as if Bitcoin is giving altcoins permission to party. If Bitcoin drops, it drags the entire market down with it, and altcoins will fall even harder.
But remember: the toughest trials often come just before the lights go out. An altcoin season is the peak of euphoria, and that is where the greatest risks lie.
So the key question is: how do we know when to stop dancing and find a way out before the music stops?
Don’t worry, the market always gives us clues. And those signals are as follows: if your regular advisor, or even your grandma, starts giving you crypto tips, that is a warning sign.
If a coin with a strange name suddenly rises thousands of percent without a clear reason, be on your guard.
The feeling of “Wow, this time it’s different,” where everyone is so optimistic, is the clearest signal that we are approaching the top.
Every season in the crypto market requires a strategy
Okay, we know the phases, we know the signals. Now the question is: what should we do? Each season in the crypto market requires a different strategy.
The key to surviving and even making a profit in these cycles is adaptation. You cannot use one strategy for all circumstances.
When the market is quiet, or in a bear market, you accumulate assets. When Bitcoin starts to rise, you follow. When you see money moving, you move your profits as well. And most importantly: when everyone is greedy at the peak of the previous season, you must be disciplined enough to start selling. This is chess, not a slot machine.
Okay, let’s summarize. If you only want to remember a few things from this discussion, make sure the following points stick in your memory. Try to remember these five rules. First: the Bitcoin halving is the beginning.
Second: money flows sequentially from Bitcoin to altcoins. Third, you need a stable Bitcoin throughout the entire season, not one whose value plummets. Fourth, when everyone is euphoric, it is time to be cautious.
And fifth, and most importantly: adapt your strategy to the season. Simple, yet powerful. Now it is your turn. Based on all of this, what phase do you think we are in right now?
Is Bitcoin just starting to warm up, or is a shift towards altcoins about to begin? ***tok
