Editor’s Note
- Bitcoin’s Secret Calendar
- When is the best time for Bitcoin, based on history?
- The Myth of the Santa Rally
- The Four-Year Cycle: Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin’s Secret Calendar
Don’t you feel that Bitcoin’s price movements are completely random? As if there is no pattern at all. But what if there is some kind of secret calendar governing everything?
Well, we are going to try to crack the code together here. This is the question that preoccupies all crypto investors.
Are we just guessing, or is there actually a hidden pattern that we can exploit? The answer is: apparently not.
If we look at Bitcoin’s historical price data, it is very clear that there is a recurring cycle. So it is not chaos, but rather a rhythm.
This concept is called ‘seasonal influence’. It is not a crystal ball that can guarantee the future. Think of it as a kind of probability map.
So we can see when the market typically performs well and when we need to be more cautious.
When is the best time for Bitcoin, based on historical data?
Did you know that there are a number of months that consistently perform exceptionally well? One of the most popular months is April.
This month has a strong reputation among traders due to strong historical data. How strong is that data?
Historically, the average return on Bitcoin in April is a positive percentage of 10.7%. That is a huge number in the investment world. The data speaks for itself. In the past 13 years, particularly in April, the month closed in the plus. That means a profit percentage of 69%.
So the odds are clearly in the positive direction. What is the secret? There are several theories. First, it has something to do with tax returns. Many people sell assets in March to pay taxes.
They then re-enter the market in April. April is also the start of a new quarter, in which institutions typically begin issuing again. But April is not the only month.
There is a month with a special nickname: October. Or what is often called October. Statistically speaking, October is perhaps the month in which Bitcoin rises.
Of course, not every month is a party. There are also times when we need to be extra careful, perhaps even tighten our seatbelts even further.
Guess which month historically makes investors the most nervous? The answer is September.
This month has a particularly bad reputation, and that applies not only in the crypto world but also in the global stock market. It is as if it were a curse. Why is that?
Normally, market liquidity is relatively low after the summer break. Fund managers, having just returned to the office, start clearing out their large portfolios.
Sometimes it is because everyone is afraid that September will be a loss-making month, so they sell early. Besides September, we also need to be a bit careful in March. This is the time when people sell assets to pay taxes. So, selling pressure is quite high.
The myth of the Santa Claus rally
Many people believe that prices will certainly rise at the end of the year. But is that really the case? The myth is that a rally will take place before the holidays.
The reality? Quite different. December is a very extreme month. If the price does not rise quickly, it will fall very deep. A balanced rise is rare. Here is the proof.
Over the past 10 years, the performance in December has been 50-50: 50% gain, 50% loss. It is just like flipping a coin, right? So don’t immediately believe the myth of the Santa Claus rally.
Because all the monthly patterns we discussed earlier are actually just a small part of a gigantic clock that regulates everything.
Four-year cycle: Bitcoin halving
This gigantic cycle is called the four-year cycle. And it has only one driving force: a unique event called the Bitcoin halving.
Currently, the supply of new Bitcoins on the market has been halved. For simplicity, we can divide this cycle into four seasons. There is spring, usually the accumulation phase. Then comes summer, when prices start to rise after the halving. Next comes autumn, the manic phase leading to a new peak, and finally winter, the correction in the bear market.
Each of these seasons can strengthen or weaken the monthly pattern.
What is the main conclusion? How can we use all this information to become smarter investors?
Take advantage of the power of April to restructure your portfolio. Ensure you have funds ready to buy on dips if there are significant discounts in September. Do not get carried away by the euphoria of the rally in December and, most importantly, always be aware of the season we are in within the four-year cycle.
In short, by understanding this secret calendar, we can stop guessing. We can become strategic investors who are ready for whatever happens in the market.
Now it is your turn. Now that you know all these patterns, which month are you going to focus on the most? ***tok
