Editor’s Note
- Bitcoin prediction: will the rally stop?
- Bitcoin Upper Limit
- Bitcoin Historical Cycle
- Key Bitcoin Indicators
- Global Macroeconomic Conditions
- Predictions and Advice
Bitcoin prediction: will the rally stop?
Will the Bitcoin rally continue or will there be a major correction? Analysis of Bitcoin’s upper limit, historical cycles, market indicators, and macroeconomic conditions to predict Bitcoin’s next price move.
There is a 70-75% chance that Bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point this year.
Bitcoin Upper Limit
Bitcoin’s upper limit is a resistance level that the Bitcoin price struggles to break through during market downturns. It is a combination of the 20-week Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Currently, the upper limit lies around $78,500. The Historical Cycle of Bitcoin
In the last three major bear markets (2014, 2018, 2022), the resistance zone has always been decisive. The price may briefly break through it, but it almost always serves as a turning point before a deeper decline.
This pattern also occurred in 2014 and 2018, with a bottom in February, a rally in March, and then a correction in early April.
Key Bitcoin Indicators
To confirm that the market has reached a bottom, confirmation from several key indicators is required:
MVRVZ score: A tool to check whether the current Bitcoin price is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical value.
Realized price: The capital price or collective break-even price for all Bitcoin holders.
Supply in profit and loss: The percentage of the total Bitcoin volume that has a profit or loss relative to the purchase price. Historically, market bottoms reach their lows when these three indicators are at extreme levels: MVRV is below zero, the market price is below the realized price, and many investors have given up. So far, such classic signals have not appeared.
Global Macroeconomic Conditions
Bitcoin’s movements are increasingly linked to the larger financial markets, particularly the stock market such as the S&P 500. If the stock market corrects slightly now, this would be healthier in the long run.
A more dangerous scenario would be if the market continues to rise to new record highs, as the pattern resembles the bubble peaks that preceded the major crashes in 2000 and 2008.
Predictions and Advice
There is a 70-75% chance that Bitcoin will not reach a bottom this year. This year is known as the middle year of the Bitcoin cycle, which is often accompanied by psychological pitfalls.
The key to survival and making a profit is having a plan and the discipline to follow it. ***tok
