Editor’s note
- Danantara becomes the sole gateway for the export of natural resources: a golden opportunity or a major risk for the Indonesian economy?
- Why is the government promoting a one-stop export policy?
- Potential positive consequences for Indonesia
- Risks that must not be ignored
- Transition period until the end of 2026
- Two scenarios for the future of Indonesia
- What should investors look out for?
- Strategies for dealing with uncertainty
Danantara becomes the sole gateway for the export of natural resources: a golden opportunity or a major risk for the Indonesian economy?
Indonesia is about to usher in a new chapter in the management of its natural resources. The government plans to implement a one-stop export policy through PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI), a step that could drastically change the way Indonesian strategic resources are traded on the global market.
This policy is not merely an administrative change. If successful, it could have a significant impact on the rupiah exchange rate, state revenues, and even the future of the Indonesian stock market. However, behind this potential lie a number of risks that require vigilance.
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Why is the government promoting a one-stop shop for exports?
Indonesia has been grappling with various challenges in the natural resource export sector for years. One of the biggest problems is the leakage of foreign currency due to practices such as under-invoicing and transfer pricing.
Under-invoicing occurs when the reported export value is lower than the actual value. As a result, a portion of the profit does not reach Indonesia. Transfer pricing enables multinational corporations to shift profits to countries with lower tax rates, causing state revenues to decline.
Moreover, not all foreign currency from exports flows back into the national financial system. A portion of the money is held abroad, limiting the benefits for the domestic economy.
Through PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia, the government aims to ensure that all export transactions involving natural resources are monitored more transparently and that foreign currency from exports actually flows into the country.
Potential positive consequences for Indonesia
If this policy proceeds as planned, several significant benefits can be achieved.
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1. Potential for a stronger rupee
When more foreign currency from exports enters the domestic financial system, the domestic supply of US dollars will increase. This can contribute to the stability of the rupee and possibly even strengthen its value against foreign currencies.
2. Higher state revenues
Stricter oversight of export transactions can reduce opportunities for tax evasion. The state can potentially generate more revenue from the natural resources sector.
This additional revenue can be used to finance infrastructure development, education, healthcare, and other strategic programs.
3. Strengthening Indonesia’s Bargaining Position
As one of the world’s leading suppliers of raw materials such as coal, nickel, palm oil, and other strategic minerals, Indonesia holds significant power in the global market.
A more centralized export mechanism allows the government to acquire a stronger bargaining position in determining prices and international trade terms.
Risks that cannot be ignored
Although this policy promises various benefits, it also entails a number of challenges.
1. Bureaucracy can hinder exports
One of the main concerns of companies is the rise of additional bureaucratic layers that can slow down the export process.
If the system is inefficient, the supply of raw materials to international markets can be delayed, reducing Indonesia’s competitive position.
2. Concerns of foreign investors
International investors generally prefer regulatory certainty. Major changes in export policy can raise concerns regarding policy stability and the investment climate in Indonesia. If not managed properly, some investors may choose to postpone investments or even move capital to other countries.
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3. Uncertainty regarding corporate cash flow
Commodity companies that previously had their own export mechanisms must adapt to the new system. During the transition period, potential disruptions to cash flow and operations are among the risks that require attention.
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This could temporarily put pressure on stocks in the commodities sector on the capital market.
Transition period until the end of 2026
Given the scale of the changes that will take place, the government has established a transition period until the end of 2026.
This period offers companies, exporters, banks, and regulators time to adapt the system and minimize the risk of disruption to trade activities.
The success of this transition period will determine whether the ‘one-stop export’ policy achieves its objectives or actually creates new problems.
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Two scenarios for the future of Indonesia
Optimistic scenario: The golden age of the capital market
If implementation proceeds smoothly, exchange rates rise, the rupiah stabilizes, and state revenues increase, Indonesia has the potential to enter a phase of stronger economic growth.
This situation could be a positive catalyst for the Indonesian stock market. Foreign investors will return, market confidence will increase, and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) could set new records.
Pessimistic scenario: Slowing exports and capital flight
Conversely, if bureaucracy becomes too complex and creates uncertainty, exporters may experience operational problems. Foreign investors could reduce their exposure to Indonesia, while capital flows might leave the domestic market.
In this scenario, economic growth slows, exports are disrupted, and financial markets come under significant pressure.
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What should investors look out for?
This transition period will be crucial for investors. Some indicators to keep an eye on are:
- The smoothness of the export process following the implementation of the policy.
- The development of Indonesian foreign exchange reserves.
- The stability of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar.
- The reaction of foreign investors to the new policy.
- The performance of companies in the commodities sector that are directly affected.
Strategies for dealing with uncertainty
In such situations, diversification is a wise move. Investors may consider balancing their portfolios between rupiah-denominated assets and assets with US dollar exposure.
This approach can help limit risk if one scenario prevails over the other.
Ultimately, the ‘one-stop export policy’ via PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia is a large-scale economic experiment. If successful, Indonesia has the opportunity to strengthen economic sovereignty and maximize the benefits of its natural resources for the population. However, if implementation is ineffective, the consequences will be felt across all economic sectors, from exporters to capital market investors.
Therefore, the coming years will be crucial for the direction of the Indonesian economy. ***tok
